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Despite a strong adjustment in public spending – which exceeded 30% -, added to a normalization of relative prices – liberation of price controls and rise in the dollar last December -, The first year of Javier Milei’s government may end with less poverty than that left by Alberto Fernández and Cristina Kirchner thanks to the stabilization of the macroeconomy and the recovery of activity, employment and salaries, all still in small monthly doses.
Poverty specialists told THE NATION that The second half of the year can border on 40% poverty. The fourth Kirchnerist government left that figure at 41.4%. Using employment data and the evolution of income distribution – a number that Indec released today – the Government calculated that poverty in the third quarter of the year was 38.9%.
“Poverty continues to decrease in Argentina. The data arises from work by the Ministry of Human Capital, through the National Council for the Coordination of Social Policies (CNCPS), which, based on data from Indec, projects that In the third quarter of 2024, poverty was around 38.9%”, stated a government statement.
Human Capital explained that the projection was made using the publication of the Indec Income Distribution Report. “In this way, thanks to the implementation of economic policies that have contributed to reducing inflation and stabilizing the economy, poverty continues to decrease during the year, after having gone from 54.8% in the first quarter to 51% in the second, and with a projection of 38.9% for the third,” it was added. The CNCPS projects that indigence stood at 8.6% during this period, after having registered 20.2% in the first quarter and 16% in the second.
“This decline is explained by two key factors: the economic policies taken by the Government, which helped balance the macroeconomy and put a stop to inflation, and the direct and transparent targeting of transfers towards the most vulnerable sectors,” They indicated in the portfolio headed by Sandra Pettovello.
Three specialists in poverty issues consulted by THE NATION They agreed that at the end of the year poverty could be around 40% and they also confirmed the data projected by the Government for the third quarter.
“The data on the distribution of total household income for the third quarter suggest that the poverty rate for that quarter would be around 39%,” concluded the specialist from the Torcuato Di Tella University (UTDT), Martín Rozada.
“This value together with a poverty rate of 51% in the second quarter indicates a poverty rate for the April-September semester of 44.9%. If the evolution of household income resembles that of the third quarter and inflation of basic baskets continues to decelerate, the poverty rate for the second half of the year would be around 40% and the indigence rate around 11%. “added Rozada when asked by this medium.
“Unlike what happened last year when the evolution of the incidence of poverty was 41.7%, but growing between the third and fourth quarters, this year the information so far suggests the opposite, the semiannual average “It would be with a poverty rate falling between the third and fourth quarters of 2024,” he concluded.
“According to the estimates generated from the recent publications of the EPH-INDEC, referring to the third quarter of 2024, the population in poverty is at similar values to the third quarter of 2023 (38.6% in 2023 and 38.9 % in 2024)”, stated Agustín Salvia, coordinator of the Social Debt Observatory of the UCA.
“In the period between the second and third quarters of this year, this percentage fell sharply from 51% to 38.9% of the population. This drastic decrease is due, mainly, to the effect of the slowdown in price increases and the relative increase in the purchasing capacity of labor income of the middle sectors,” added the sociologist.
Salvia said that indigence went from 10% to 8.5%, when comparing the third quarters of 2023 and 2024. “Which shows a situation of rapid recovery, considering that in the second quarter of this year it was in this situation 16% of the population. This is basically due to the increase in non-labor income of lower stratum households and the marked slowdown in price increases, mainly in regards to food and beverages,” he said. For the UCA specialist, the second half of this year may end even slightly below 40%.
Leopoldo Tornarolli, Cedlas specialist at the University of La Plata, agree with that possibility. “This is going to sound strong, and I am double-checking because it is surprising: poverty in the April-September semester would have been below 45%, a drop of eight points compared to January-June. And in July-September it was something like 38.5%. “If so, it could close 2024 below 2023,” explained the researcher in poverty, inequality and socioeconomic aspects.
