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JavierMiley managed to consolidate a pole of power in the midst of the decadence with no end in sight of the pre-existing parties and leaderships. This undisputed primacy allows him to dominate political times without major shocks, but he is far from restoring harmony in a system that burst into pieces in the 2023 elections. His bet consists, in reality, of prolong the chaoswhere he moves like a baqueano.
Libertarians don’t want allies. They manage the waters of the Jordanin which all those who express fidelity to “the ideas of freedom” are invited to purify themselves. They are convinced that social trust in Milei responds to the fact that he is identified as outside the “caste” system. Top pacts are a way to contaminate oneself and, in the long run, inject a dose of the crisis of others.
The “purity” certificates are distributed one by one. It’s a lesson they seem to understand, belatedly, Mauricio Macri and his faithful in the Pro. Patricia Bullrich “he saw her” from the outset when he showed off his experience in the art of cutting recent ties. This week the pass of Diego KravetzSecretary of Security of the Buenos Aires government, to the second most important chair in the SIDE that the advisor supervises Santiago Caputo. The siren songs sound, thunderous, in the ears of yellow leaders with some electoral assets.
The circle of the new ruling party does not make distinctions of origin. They entered with a red carpet Daniel Scioli and the governors Osvaldo Jaldo (Tucumán) and Raúl Jalil (Catamarca)leading actors of the old regime. He was excited to settle there Edgardo Kueider until carelessness with a backpack full of dollars sent him to prison in Paraguay. She recovered her “caste” status like a Cinderella in 4×4, although Milei himself tried the posthumous favor of hindering her expulsion from the Senate.
Kueider’s fall from grace did not prevent the head of his block from fleeing Kirchnerism, Camau Spinolaformalized in the Casa Rosada his vocation to become a libertarian to compete for the governorship of Corrientes in 2025. There is no hatred of Raúl Alfonsín that prevents the designation of a former radical deputy as Alejandro Cacace at the Ministry of Deregulation Federico Sturzenegger. Nor promise to combat corruption that arouses presidential curiosity in the face of journalistic revelations about the undeclared properties abroad of the director of the General Tax Directorate (DGI), Andres Vazquezwith long and dark experience in Kirchnerist governments.
Purity is defined based on loyalty to the leader. Milei calls for fighting with the “weapons of the enemy.” Apparently he also needs some of those who know how to shoot them. It is true: he was faced with a devilish governance scenario and a bleak economic outlook. The end justifies the means.
As a consequence of this conception, the new ruling party has diffuse limits and its geography is incapable of providing reasonable levels of predictability.
Thus, Milei and Freedom Advances (LLA) They become extremely dependent on economic results and the popularity indices measured by surveys. Perhaps that is why the Casa Rosada has just approved a tender that establishes the conditions for hiring almost all the large public opinion consultants, to whom it will commission polls in the election year. Poor chainsaw.
The drop in inflation and the stability of the dollar accentuated Milei’s magnetism in a political environment in which there are no parties left but splinters. Why sit down to negotiate with Macri or with any other structure when at the top of power they interpret that voters have abandoned loyalty with all of the above?
When Macri becomes indignant and denounces “distreatment” by the Government, Milei lowers his tone with an apparently conciliatory message. “All of us who defend the ideas of freedom have to be together”says. But it does not explain what the deal would be like.
For that you have to look at the movements of Karina Milei and Santiago Caputo. The intention of the other two members of the “iron triangle” is to offer, at most, places on the lists, not to sit down and negotiate a comprehensive agreement of mutual concessions. And much less a parliamentary or government coalition.
Hostilities towards those who reached out to Milei have become a permanent line of action. They apply market logic to them: lower the price to buy them cheaper (metaphorically speaking, of course).
A system built on similar foundations is by definition unpredictable. The opposition remains in a state of shock at the strange entity they have to face. Its members orbit without concert, with indecipherable criteria for the citizens they should represent.
He radicalism It breaks into a thousand pieces and each new sector fragments again at the first discussion of some relevance. He Pro suffers the friendly fire of Bullrich, even though no one could explain with certainty what great ideological difference (beyond tactical issues) separates it from Macrismo. The attempts at centrism – so despised by Milei – never come to fruition.
Peronism revives a crisis from five years ago. The strength of Cristina Kirchner In the Buenos Aires suburbs, she acts as a buffer for any leadership that intends to succeed her and confront Milei without backpacks of former failures. The formula that accompanied the unthinkable rise of Alberto Fernández to power in 2019 sounds again, out of tune: with Cristina it is not enough, without Cristina it is not possible.
The breakup of the former president with Axel Kicillof It constitutes a symbol of these times of deterioration. The governor raises the flag of critical ultra-Christianity. She aspires to represent the new without adapting the methods that once enclosed her in a bubble of fanaticism. The owners of plots of Peronist power – governors, heavy mayors, district chiefs – watch the show from the outside, without ruling out a resigned leap to mileism.
They all live together in a degradation environmentcrossed by scandalous information. The Pro is immersed in his discomfort at the dissemination of the assets of the head of the block of deputies, Cristian Ritondo. Kueider’s bag challenges libertarians and Kirchnerism alike, although they want to distance themselves from the Entre Ríos turncoat. Cristina continues to accumulate corruption trials from her presidential years. scream legal warwhile enabling its delegates in Congress to negotiate with the Government a new configuration of the Judicial Branch. So far no luck.
The journalist’s revelations Hugo Alconada Mon in Andres Vazquezthe hound that does not smell itself, awaken a chorus of silences. Milei does not ask him for explanations for omitting in his sworn statements before the Anti-Corruption Office (OA) the apartments he bought in Miami with companies in tax havens. Choose to believe. The Pro was tied to the Ritondo doctrine (whom Milei defended more than his own). Peronism may prefer not to spit into the sky, given that those operations offshore of the current director of the DGI occurred when he was following instructions from Cristina, in 2013. Only the Civic Coalitionby Elisa Carrió, decided – like someone entering a dangerous jungle – to denounce the opaque conduct of the person responsible for collecting taxes from “good Argentines.”
He swap plays for Milei. The polls say so: a social majority continues to perceive him as alien to the corrupt corporation that dragged Argentina into the economic and social disaster.
Today’s advantage can be tomorrow’s trap. He revelation principle that the President uses to strengthen himself thanks to the moral stature of his enemies gave him time and room for maneuver to stabilize the economy and achieve reasonable levels of stability after dramatic years, characterized by permanent tremor. He bet all his chips on lower inflationwhich was the most urgent demand of the population. He did it.
A big unknown for the second year is whether the story of “me against the world” It will be enough to provide the country with a long-term horizon, capable of guaranteeing the structural reforms required by a model like the one he promotes. Investors applaud for now, but are reluctant to open their wallets.
Milei will be able to exceed 2025 again with decrees, vetoes and a paralyzed Congress. But sooner or later he will have to articulate something similar to a political coalition that defends the broad strokes of the course he proposes: fiscal balance, trade openness, deregulation to empower the private sector. On the other side, with or without Cristina, Peronism will regroup to represent the notion of an economy governed by the State, with a tendency towards protectionism and without a phobia of public spending.
The electoral crossroads for libertarians is then drawn. The great agreements relate it to “the caste.” But what would happen to the markets if Cristina Kirchner won the province of Buenos Aires next year, benefiting from an eventual division between La Libertad Avanza, the Pro and other related forces? What effect would an event of these characteristics, not at all improbable, have on a plan that is based above all on trust?
Milei’s cultural battle may not be about transforming the world or demonstrating the moral superiority of the right or spending the day pointing out “baboons.” He may decide, in the midst of vertigo, that his is, “without a doubt, the best government in history”. At the end of the game, the judgment will be made by others. Its success will depend on being able to demonstrate to locals and strangers that a market economic program can work in Argentina.
